tailieunhanh - Time frame for future large earthquakes near İstanbul based on east-to-west decelerating failure of the North Anatolian Fault

Large earthquakes that have occurred along the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) were analysed to elaborate the time frame of future large earthquakes near İstanbul. The historical earthquake catalog that was compiled covered 1 nearly complete and 2 fully complete failures of the NAF between 1250 and 2000 AD. These data were used to investigate the space-time systematics of M ≥ earthquakes. The catalogue identified an east-to-west decelerating domino-like failure of the NAF. The deceleration starts around the western tip of the 1944 Gerede rupture. | BULUT and DOĞRU Turkish J Earth Sci Turkish Journal of Earth Sciences Turkish J Earth Sci 2021 30 204-214 http earth TÜBİTAK Research Article doi yer-2006-7 Time frame for future large earthquakes near İstanbul based on east-to-west decelerating failure of the North Anatolian Fault Fatih BULUT Aslı DOĞRU Geodesy Department Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute Boğazici University İstanbul Turkey Received Accepted Published Online Final Version Abstract Large earthquakes that have occurred along the North Anatolian Fault NAF were analysed to elaborate the time frame of future large earthquakes near İstanbul. The historical earthquake catalog that was compiled covered 1 nearly complete and 2 fully complete failures of the NAF between 1250 and 2000 AD. These data were used to investigate the space-time systematics of M earthquakes. The catalogue identified an east-to-west decelerating domino-like failure of the NAF. The deceleration starts around the western tip of the 1944 Gerede rupture. This suggested that failure of the remaining unruptured 250-km section in the west İstanbul to Saros will take substantially longer than failure of the already ruptured 950-km section in the east Karlıova to İzmit . The calculations indicated that complete failure of the NAF will last for 243 3 years. The deceleration could not be explained by strain partitioning between the subparallel strands of the NAF in the Marmara region. Key words Future earthquakes near İstanbul North Anatolian Fault historical earthquakes 1. Introduction last 2 complete and partly during the current incomplete The forecasting of future large earthquakes is significantly failures and suggested a stochastic relation between the relevant for human life in seismically active regions. location and occurrence times of large earthquakes. Although previous efforts have mostly failed due to In this study the residual between the .

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