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OECD Economic Surveys UNITED KINGDOM

The ELICOS sector has been hit particularly hard. The peak body for ELICOS providers, English Australia, has suggested that in view of the confluence of negative factors recently, ELICOS enrolments could fall between 30 to 40%. From the perspective of higher education, the marked decline in ELICOS commencements could be a potential indicator of future decline. ELICOS providers typically prepare future higher education students in their short course structures, as 60% of students ‘pathway’ into the other sectors. Falls in ELICOS enrolments this year more often than not presage falls in higher education commencements the next year. . | OECD Economic Surveys UNITED KINGDOM MARCH 2011 OVERVIEW OECD Summary The UK economy emerged from the 2008-09 recession with elevated public and private debt and high unemployment. Strong growth and macroeconomic stability in the run-up to the crisis had hidden a build-up of significant imbalances influenced by overreliance on debt-finance and the financial sector and booming asset prices. These imbalances need to be addressed to ensure a sustainable and balanced recovery. The government is pursuing a necessary and wide ranging programme of fiscal consolidation and structural reforms aimed at achieving stronger growth and a rebalancing of the economy over time. A broad based recovery started in end-2009 but faces significant headwinds during 2011 which can be mitigated by monetary policy remaining supportive. The planned fiscal consolidation is needed to ensure that the fiscal position will be sustainable over time. Nonetheless it adds to the headwinds from weak real income growth and a fading rebound in global trade. Monetary policy should hence remain expansionary even if headline inflation is significantly above target to support the recovery. While the government s fiscal plans and reforms to the fiscal policy framework have significantly reduced fiscal risks further improvements to the fiscal framework and reforms to make the financial sector more robust are needed. The government has embarked on an ambitious and necessary fiscal adjustment and strengthening of fiscal institutions including the welcome creation of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Steps towards establishing a permanent fiscal framework should start to be undertaken as the public finances are returned closer to balance. The creation of a Financial Policy Committee will strengthen macro-prudential policy but further steps are needed to deal with banks that are too big to fail . Reforms to housing policy should aim to increase affordability and mitigate excessive house price volatility by .