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Russian Federation: Selected Issues

The relative peace following the common position among government officials and representatives of EU institutions was suddenly put into question on 17 October. At that date the President of the European Commission Romano Prodi declared that excessively strict rules are not sensible and the rigid implementation of the Pact is “stupid,” as all rigid decisions. Shortly thereafter on 24 October, the ECB Council reacting to the debate sparked by Prodi's remark issued a statement expressing its firm support for the existing European fiscal framework since it felt that the debate could be damaging the credibility of the Pact in the public. By the time, when the EU. | 2012 International Monetary Fund August 2012 IMF Country Report No. 12 218 Russian Federation Selected Issues This paper was prepared based on the information available at the time it was completed on July 11 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of the Russian Federation or the Executive Board of the IMF. The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents by the IMF allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund Publication Services 700 19th Street N.W. Washington D.C. 20431 Telephone 202 623-7430 Telefax 202 623-7201 E-mail publications@imf.org Internet http www.imf.org International Monetary Fund Washington D.C. INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND RUSSIAN FEDERATION Selected Issues Prepared by Simon Gray Charleen Gust David Hofman Daehaeng Kim and Hiroko Oura Approved by European Department July 11 2012 Contents Page I. Russian Federation Potential Growth the Past and the Future.3 A. Introduction.3 B. Potential Growth and Productivity.4 C. Source of Growth in Russia 2001-11 .5 D. Growth Model with Variable Capital Utilization.7 E. Russia s Long-Run Growth Path and Economic Catch-up.9 Appendix I.1. Growth Model with Variable Capital Utilization.12 References.14 II. Making Russian Monetary Policy More Effective.15 A. The CBR s Policy Interest Rate Corridor How Wide Should It Be .15 B. Managing Expectations Improving the CBR s Communication Policy.30 III. Banking Sector and Financial Market Conditions.34 A. Recent Developments.34 B. Economic Risks and Resilience Going Forward.42 IV. Fiscal Rules and Russia s Budget Framework.49 Tables 11.1. Policy Rate Corridors.24 11.2. Central Bank of Russia Interest Rates.27 111.1. Financial Soundness Indicators of Banks 2007-12.46 111.2. Financial Soundness Indicators Across Banks end-2011.48 IV.1. Pros and Cons of Nonoil Deficit Target vs.