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SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR

Since the trade share in the United States is considerably smaller than in these other countries, a change in the trade share of comparable magnitude will have less impact on GDP. In other words, if the U.S. had a 10 percent increase in exports and a 10 percent decline in imports, it would have less than half the impact on its GDP as a comparable change in Norway and less than a third of the impact of a comparable change in trade in the Netherlands. The prospect for large improvements in the trade balance are made even worse. | SUMMING UP BY THE ACTING CHAIR The following remarks by the Acting Chair were made at the conclusion of the Executive Board s discussion of the World Economic Outlook on September 2 2005. Executive Directors welcomed the continued strong expansion of the global economy which has evolved broadly as was expected at the last discussion of the World Economic Outlook. Following the strongest performance seen in three decades in 2004 overall economic growth has moderated to a more sustainable pace during 2005 while inflationary pressures remain subdued. Directors observed that within this overall favorable picture growth divergences remain wide with the United States and China still leading global growth Japan regaining momentum and the expansion in the euro area remaining subdued while global imbalances have increased yet again. Looking forward and notwithstanding the impact of higher oil prices and global imbalances Directors expected global economic conditions to remain favorable with growth underpinned by still-accommodative macroeconomic policies benign financial market conditions and increasingly solid corporate balance sheets. Directors cautioned nonetheless that the balance of risks to the outlook is slanted to the downside with projected global growth still unbalanced and significantly dependent on the United States and China. Other key short-term risks identified by Directors include the possibility that financial market conditions could tighten significantly contributing to a global weakening of richly valued housing markets and that rising protectionist sentiments in some countries might lead to a tightening of trade barriers and undermine investor confidence. Directors acknowledged that the limited impact thus far of oil price increases on the global economy is attributable in part to the falling energy intensity of economic activity as well as to well-anchored inflationary expectations. A number of Directors were nevertheless concerned about the impact of .