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Hot Topic: The Global Economic Crisis

Mining has diminished as a major factor in the US economy, a consequence of the growth of other sectors, and the reduction in the prices for raw materials. Contrary to many popular predictions, the prices of raw materials have fallen even as output and population have grown. We will see later in this book that the fall in prices of raw materials – ostensibly in fixed supply given the limited capacity of the earth – means that people expect a relative future abundance, either because of technological improvements in their use or because of large as yet undiscovered. | Hot Topic The Global Economic Crisis May 2009 Introduction This hot topic pulls together the key findings from a series of recent GSDRC helpdesk research reports which explore the potential impacts of the current economic crisis on developing countries. Contents Overview of key findings------------------------------------------------- p 1 Helpdesk research reports------------------------------------------------ p 3 o The Global Economic Crisis and the Asia Pacific Region---------------- p 3 o The Global Economic Crisis and Sub-Saharan Africa--------------------- p 17 o The Global Economic Crisis Conflict and Social Stability------------- p 30 o The Argentine Financial Crisis 2001-2002 ---------------------------- p 45 o The Indonesian Financial Crisis 1997-1998 --------------------------- p 54 Overview of key findings Much of the developing world is now beginning to suffer the impacts of the global economic crisis. In the Asia-Pacific region the countries expected to suffer the greatest impact are those with recent rapid labour force growth and slowing economies that are heavily reliant on exports. In the case of Sub-saharan Africa the most affected countries are likely to be those whose economies are highly dependent on primary commodities especially when combined with poor governance and weak state institutions. Declining investment in and demand for commodity exports and services has already resulted in the cancellation of projects cutbacks in mining and other industries and resultant rises in unemployment. There are concerns that some governments will be unable to provide social safety nets and may cut back spending on social services and infrastructure because of the devaluation of reserves falls in revenues and potential cuts in foreign aid. In the longer term reorientation away from productive export sectors towards lower productivity sectors and decreasing investment in infrastructure may negatively impact future growth prospects and poverty reduction. The