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TUNISIA’S ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

Third, we look at the results for other time intervals since the start of the crisis, as well as the results for “normal times” (1997–2008). Looking within the crisis, we find evidence of more underestimation of fiscal multipliers earlier in the crisis (for the time intervals 2009–10 and 2010–11) than later in the crisis (2011–12 and 2012–13). Results for the earlier samples yield coefficients typically between 0.7 and 1.0. Results for the later samples yield coefficients typically between 0.3 and 0.5 and are less statistically significant. Interestingly, and again perhaps not surprisingly, we find no evidence of systematic forecast. | THE------- CARNEGIE ---- PAPERS TUNISIA S ECONOMIC CHALLENGES Lahcen Achy DECEMBER 2011 CARNEGIE Middle east Center CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE 2011 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. The Carnegie Endowment does not take institutional positions on public policy issues the views represented here are the author s own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment its staff or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Endowment. Please direct inquiries to Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Publications Department 1779 Massachusetts Avenue NW Washington D.C. 20036 Tel. 1 202-483-7600 Fax 1 202-483-1840 www.CarnegieEndowment.org This publication can be downloaded at no cost at www.CarnegieEndowment.org pubs. CMEC .