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Update on the Jamaican Economy

The research indicates that individuals gain valuable skills in post-secondary education and training programs, particularly at community colleges, but there are problems in the system. One of the most important is relatively high drop-out and non-completion rates. Among students who first enrolled in a public four-year college, 78% had attained an academic degree or were still pursuing a degree six years later; the percentage drops to only 53% for those who first enrolled in a public two-year college. 37 Low program completion rates also plague adult basic education programs. A key factor impeding program completion is. | cepr CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH Update on the Jamaican Economy Jake Johnston and Juan A. Montecino May 2012 Center for Economic and Policy Research 1611 Connecticut Avenue NW Suite 400 Washington D.C. 20009 202-293-5380 www.cepr.net CEPR Update on the Jamaican Economy i Contents Executive Summary.1 Introduction.2 Jamaica and the IMF.3 IMF Agreement as a Requirement for Other Sources of Funds.4 Growth and Employment Recent Developments.5 Public Finances and Interest Payments.9 The Jamaica Debt Exchange Revisited.12 Conclusion.14 References.15 Appendix Debt Accounting Framework.18 Acknowledgements The authors thank Mark Weisbrot for helpful comments and Sara Kozameh for editorial assistance. About the Authors Jake Johnston and Juan Montecino are research assistants at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington D.C. CEPR Update on the Jamaican Economy 1 Executive Summary This paper looks at Jamaica s stalled agreement with the International Monetary Fund IMF its economic performance over the past year and examines its persistently high debt burden. It finds that an unsustainable debt burden continues to displace needed investments preventing long-term growth. The stalling of the IMF agreement has prevented disbursements of necessary multilateral financing slowing the economy s recovery. Together with pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies supported by the IMF the recovery of the Jamaican economy remains muted. Although economic growth returned in 2011 a lack of public investment coupled with pro-cyclical macroeconomic policies implemented under the IMF agreement constrained growth. The Jamaican economy grew by 1.5 percent in 2011. This is slow growth by any comparison but is especially weak for a recovery from a recession. The IMF projects the Jamaican economy will not reach its 2007 level until late 2015 while per-capita GDP will remain below its 2007 level in 2017. Accordingly poverty and unemployment continue to be elevated. Last year .