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What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? - Marc Townsend
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What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? by Marc Townsend presented risk, linkes markets, office rent cyce, yields, adding value, regional comparison. | What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? Presented by: Marc Townsend Managing Director Monday 21st September 2009 Risks -Inflation -Infrastructure -Transparency -The past was too good to give up -NPLs -Valuations -Capital gains tax issues on the transfer of property -Speculation is so easy -Land clearance and tender and auction process 2 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Asia economic outlook - 2009 GDP growth -3.1% Clouds over growth but positive prospect Clouds over growth and dimmer prospect -5.3% Recent deterioration and uncertain outlook Continued deterioration TAIWAN HONG KONG CHINA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN 6.0% INDIA -5.6% -2.5% 6.5% -3.1% THAILAND VIETNAM 3.5% -2.5% SINGAPORE MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILLIPPINES 1.4% -6.5% Source: IMA (April 2009) 2.8% 3 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Asia economic outlook - 2010 GDP growth 3.2% Clouds over growth but positive prospect Clouds over growth and dimmer prospect -1.0% Recent deterioration and uncertain outlook Continued deterioration TAIWAN HONG KONG CHINA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN 7.0% INDIA -0.5% 3.6% 7.5% 2.9% THAILAND VIETNAM 4.9% 2.1% SINGAPORE MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILLIPPINES 3.0% 3.0% Source: IMA (April 2009) 4.5% 4 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Linked Markets Real estate capital values trend closely with domestic gold and stock prices VN Index Closed at 556.75 15 Sept 2009 130% Source: HSC Securities Vietnam Gold 15% Source: Giavang 5 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Office Rent Cycle 6 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Complexity of deals Investment Sales change shape Foreigners to Locals Locals to Foreigners Sale of Shares of single asset companies En-bloc Sales during construction Sale of the Retail Podium of mixed-use .