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Lecture Operations management: Chapter 5S - William J. Stevenson

Chapter 5S - Decision theory. This chapter include objectives: Outline the steps in the decision process, name some causes of poor decisions, describe and use techniques that apply to decision making under uncertainty, describe and use the expected-value approach,. | Decision Theory Supplement 5 Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 1 You should be able to: LO 5s.1 Outline the steps in the decision process LO 5s.2 Name some causes of poor decisions LO 5s.3 Describe and use techniques that apply to decision making under uncertainty LO 5s.4 Describe and use the expected-value approach LO 5s.5 Construct a decision tree and use it to analyze a problem LO 5s.6 Compute the expected value of perfect information LO 5s.7 Conduct sensitivity analysis on a simple decision problem Supplement 5: Learning Objectives 2 Steps: Identify the problem Specify objectives and criteria for a solution Develop suitable alternatives Analyze and compare alternatives Select the best alternative Implement the solution Monitor to see that the desired result is achieved Decision Process LO 5s.1 3 Decisions occasionally turn out poorly due to unforeseeable . | Decision Theory Supplement 5 Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education. 1 You should be able to: LO 5s.1 Outline the steps in the decision process LO 5s.2 Name some causes of poor decisions LO 5s.3 Describe and use techniques that apply to decision making under uncertainty LO 5s.4 Describe and use the expected-value approach LO 5s.5 Construct a decision tree and use it to analyze a problem LO 5s.6 Compute the expected value of perfect information LO 5s.7 Conduct sensitivity analysis on a simple decision problem Supplement 5: Learning Objectives 2 Steps: Identify the problem Specify objectives and criteria for a solution Develop suitable alternatives Analyze and compare alternatives Select the best alternative Implement the solution Monitor to see that the desired result is achieved Decision Process LO 5s.1 3 Decisions occasionally turn out poorly due to unforeseeable circumstances; however, this is not the norm. More frequently poor decisions are the result of a combination of Mistakes in the decision process Bounded rationality Suboptimization Causes of Poor Decisions LO 5s.2 4 Errors in the Decision Process Failure to recognize the importance of each step Skipping a step Failure to complete a step before jumping to the next step Failure to admit mistakes Inability to make a decision Mistakes in the Decision Process LO 5s.2 5 There are three general environment categories: Certainty Environment in which relevant parameters have known values Risk Environment in which certain future events have probabilistic outcomes Uncertainty Environment in which it is impossible to assess the likelihood of various possible future events Decision Environments LO 5s.3 6 Decisions are sometimes made under complete uncertainty: No information is available on how likely the various states of nature are. Decision Criteria: Maximin Choose the alternative with the best of the .