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WORKING PAPER NO. 218 THE ZERO-INTEREST-RATE BOUND AND THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE FOR MONETARY POLICY IN JAPAN

Visual inspection reveals that around the time of the EC recommendation of the early warning to Portugal and Germany (rumours on 17 January, recommendation on 30 January), there was an increase in Portuguese 10-year government bond yields. The cumulative increase in the Portuguese 10-year government bond yields reached 23 bp to decline thereafter to 10 bp in the beginning of February. This movement of the long-term yields implied a decline of the swap spread became negative in some days of the period between 17 January and 30 January (see Figure 5). A similar development can be tracked after the announcement of 30 January. The cumulative change in. | EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES WORKING PAPER NO. 218 THE ZERO-INTEREST-RATE BOUND AND THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE FOR MONETARY POLICY IN JAPAN BY GUNTER COENEN AND VOLKER WIELAND MARCH 2003 EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK WORKING PAPER SERIES WORKING PAPER NO. 218 THE ZERO-INTEREST-RATE BOUND AND THE ROLE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE FOR MONETARY POLICY IN JAPAN BY GUNTER COENEN AND VOLKER WIELAND MARCH 2003 Prepared for the Conference on the tenth anniversary of the Taylor rule in the Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy November 22-23 2002. We are grateful for helpful comments by Ignazio Angeloni Chris Erceg Chris Gust Bennett McCallum Fernando Restoy Lars Svensson Carl Walsh as well as seminar participants at the Carnegie-Rochester conference the Bank of Canada the London School of Economics and the European Central Bank. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect views of the European Central Bank. Volker Wieland served as a consultant in the Directorate General Research at the European Central Bank while preparing this paper. Any errors are of course the sole responsibility of the authors. Correspondence Coenen Directorate General Research European Central Bank Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany tel. 49 69 1344-7887 e-mail gunter.coenen@ecb.int Wieland Professur fur Geldtheorie und -politik Johann-Wolfgang-Goethe Universitat Mertonstrasse 17 D-60325 Frankfurt am Main Germany tel. 49 69 798-25288 e-mail wieland@wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de homepage http www.volkerwieland.com. European Central Bank 2003 Address Kaiserstrasse 29 D-60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 D-60066 Frankfurt am Main Germany Telephone Internet 49 69 1344 0 http www.ecb.int Fax 49 69 1344 6000 Telex 411 144 ecb d All rights reserved. Reproduction for educational and non-commercial purposes is permitted provided that the source is acknowledged. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect