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The Markets in 2012 Foresight with Insight

Eventually investment banks developed a clear policy line in their newsletters, and some proposed changes to the Pact along these lines. For example, Morgan Stanley’s (07/11/02) views were in line with the ECB, arguing that the Pact is not fundamentally flawed, but a valuable compromise, which should be kept as a framework for fiscal policies in EMU. Countries not complying with the Pact should not try to change the rules since it is their responsibility that they have not done enough to consolidate their public finances in good times. Similarly, Credit Suisse First Boston argued that changing the Pact would seriously damage its credibility. 5 By comparison, Goldman. | Deutsche Bank Corporate Investment Bank Foreword A broader view The year 2012 looks set to be as challenging as 2011 with many open questions about the outlook for the markets and the future of the global economy. It will be harder than ever for investors to make decisions that strike a strategic balance between opportunity and risk both in the shorter and longer term. More than ever understanding the issues impacting the market as a whole will be critical to investors success in the year ahead. Strategies based purely on expertise in a particular industry or asset class will be insufficient developing a broader view is essential to navigate the increasingly correlated environment. With this publication we aim to deliver exactly that comprehensive overview to help you refine your perspective across a host of markets economies and industries. We hope you find it useful. On behalf of all of my colleagues we thank you for choosing to work with Deutsche Bank and look forward to further partnership in the year ahead. Anshu Jain Head of the Corporate Investment Bank Member of the Management Board Markets in 2012 Foresight with Insight Deutsche Bank The Markets in 2012 Foresight with Insight Contents 1 Leaders 3 Markets SB 5 Financing Investment Risk Management 1.1 Global Economy 3.1 US Equities The outlook for 2012 It s all about the multiple 5.1 Bond Market Outlook 1.2 The Renminbi 3.2 European Equities Outlook for 2012 The world s next reserve currency Time to be bold 5.2 Equity Market Outlook 1.3 The Case for Equities 3.3 Asian Equities Prospects for issuers Is fundamental valuation dead Focus on large caps 5.3 Commercial Mortgage Backed 1.4 US Elections 3.4 Emerging Market Equities Securities Presidential prospects and Difficult year ahead False boom real dawn implications 3.5 Credit 5.4 Art 1.5 Investing in a Crisis Outlook for 2012 The waiting room Tough times ahead but there will 3.6 Commodities be opportunities Can they push higher Financing Investment 3.7 FX .