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The Relativity Theory Revisited: Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable?

Third, the interest-on-reserves regime might very well be self-financing; it even has the potential to generate significant additional revenue for the government. At worst, switching to the interest-on-reserves regime would involve a relatively small adverse effect on government finances. Paying a market rate of interest on reserves could create cash flow problems for a central bank; but these problems would be manageable. Finally, the interest-on-reserves regime would eliminate entirely distortions in financial markets due to the tax on reserves. Banks would save resources that had been devoted to economizing on reserves. An abundance of costless, safe reserves would substitute somewhat for. | NATIONAL BANK OF POLAND WORKING PAPER No. 52 The Relativity Theory Revisited Is Publishing Interest Rate Forecasts Really so Valuable Michat Brzoza-Brzezina Adam Kot Warsaw November 2008 Michal Brzoza-Brzezina - National bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics e-mail michal.brzoza-brzezina@mail.nbp.pl Adam Kot - National Bank of Poland and Warsaw School of Economics e-mail akot@sgh.waw.pl We would like to thank M. Kolasa A. Slawinski p. Soderlind J. Suda p. Welz and J.c. Williams as well as participants of the WIEM 2008 conference and of the NBP seminar for helpful comments. The views expressed in this paper are our own and do not necessarily reflect the position of the National Bank of Poland. Design Oliwka s.c. Layout and print NBP Printshop Published by National Bank of Poland Department of Information and Public Relations 00-919Warszawa 11 21 Swiẹtokrzyska street phone 48 22 653 23 35 fax 48 22 653 13 21 Copyright by the National Bank of Poland 2008 http www.nbp.pl Contents Contents List of tables and figures.4 Abstract.5 1 Introduction .6 2 The Model.9 3 Expectations.11 4 Simulations and results.14 4.1 Simulations .14 4.2 Results.14 5 Conclusions.17 References.18 Appendix 1 .21 Appendix 2 .23 WORKING PAPER No. 52