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Countering al Qaeda

Having achieved its initial goals in the war on terrorism, the United States is now in a second, more complex phase of the campaign. This monograph reviews events since the attacks of September 11, 2001, and discusses the current state of the al Qaeda organization and the kinds of actions that can be expected of it in the | COUal Qaeda An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy Brian Michael Jenkins RAND This publication was supported by RAND using its own funds. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jenkins Brian Michael. Countering Al Qaeda an appreciation of the situation and suggestions for strategy Brian Michael Jenkins. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. MR-1620. ISBN 0-8330-3264-X pbk. 1. War on Terrorism 2001- 2. Qaida Organization 3. Terrorism. 4. United States Military policy. 5. Terrorism Government policy United States. I. Rand Corporation. II.Title. HV6432.7 .J46 2002 363.3 2 0973 dc21 2002012737 RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND is a registered trademark. RAND s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions or policies of its research sponsors. Copyright 2002 RAND All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means including photocopying recording or information storage and retrieval without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2002 by RAND 1700 Main Street RO. Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street Arlington VA 22202-5050 201 North Craig Street Suite 202 Pittsburgh PA 15213-1516 RAND URL http www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information contact Distribution Services Telephone 310 451-7002 Fax 310 451-6915 Email order@rand.org PREFACE This monograph grew out of several briefings. Subsequent to the briefings the work was substantially extended and updated to reflect later developments. Support for writing this monograph was provided by RAND using its corporate funds. Comments are welcome and may be addressed to the author Brian M. Jenkins RAND P.O. Box 2138 Santa Monica CA 90407-2138 Brian_Jenkins@rand.org .