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Financial Analysis: Tools and Techniques Phần 9

Phân tích tài chính: Công cụ và kỹ thuật Khó khăn gia tăng của các hoạt động dự báo vượt quá kết thúc của thời kỳ phân tích lựa chọn cho thấy rằng chúng ta cũng tìm thấy một câu trả lời tắt chấp nhận được đối với giá trị liên tục. | 384 Financial Analysis Tools and Techniques The added difficulty of forecasting operations beyond the end of the chosen analysis period suggests that we also find an acceptable shortcut answer for the ongoing value. A common way of dealing with the problem is to use a price to earnings multiple that might be warranted at that point i.e. to set the value of the business at the termination point based on 10 15 or 20 times the after-tax earnings in that year. The multiple chosen will depend on the nature of the business and the trends in the industry it represents. Because of the power of discounting such an approximation of the ongoing value will generally suffice at least for an initial valuation result. At times the ongoing value is simply represented by the estimated book value of the business although this is probably a less satisfactory shortcut than the earnings multiple for the reasons we discussed in earlier chapters. Once all the cash flow elements have been estimated they can be assembled in the form of a spreadsheet as shown in the generalized format of Figure 11-5 which parallels the various examples we gave in Chapter 8. The resulting annual net cash flows free cash flow represent the cash available to the company to support its obligations to all providers of the long-term funds i.e. the payment of FIGURE 11-5 Total Company Valuation A Numerical Example Present Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 EBIT 1 - t 10 000 12 000 13 000 12 000 13 500 12 500 Add write-offs and noncash items 6 500 7 000 8 600 9 300 9 900 11 900 Less net new working capital Less net new capital -1 200 -1 400 -1 800 500 -1 600 -2 000 investments -8 000 -15 000 -10 200 -11 000 -22 000 -10 000 Add less significant nonoperating items 500 -300 400 1 200 -800 0 Free cash flow . 7 800 2 300 10 000 12 000 -1 000 12 400 Ongoing value @ 15 times earnings 187 500 Present value factors @ 12 Present values @ cost 0.893 0.797 0.712 0.636 0.567 0.507 of capital 6 965 1 833 7 120 7 632 -567