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ELDERLY HOUSING CONSUMPTION: HISTORICAL PATTERNS AND PROJECTED TRENDS

In the period 1985 to 2003, the elderly population aged 62 to 74 decreased by close to six percent, whereas the elderly population aged 75 to 84 grew by close to 35 percent. Householders aged 45 to 54 show a dramatic increase in numbers over the 1985 to 2003 time period – i.e., a 70 percent increase from 12.8 million to 21.8 million. This is interesting because by 1991, the first cohort of the Baby Boomer generation began entering this age category. (The last cohort entered the age category in 2003.) . | Elderly Housing Consumption Historical patterns and projected trends November 20 2005 The research presented here was performed under the AHS Analytical Support Contract issued by the Office of Policy Development and Research at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development hUd . The work was performed by ICF Consulting http www.icfconsulting.com and Econometrica Inc. http www.econometricainc.com . Kevin S. Blake and Aleksandra Simic Ph.D. of ICF Consulting were the principal authors. ICF Consulting staff who worked on this report included Kevin S. Blake Mariana Carrera Joshua Leftin and Aleksandra Simic Ph.D. The authors would like to thank David A. Vandenbroucke of HUD Gregory J. Watson of The Moran Company and Frederick J. Eggers Ph.D. of Econometrica Inc. for their oversight and comments. The views and findings presented here represent those of the authors only and should not be construed to necessarily reflect those of HUD. Elderly Housing Consumption Executive Summary The generation collectively known as the Baby Boomer Generation has exerted tremendous influence on U.S. society and institutions throughout their lives. This influence will continue as they age and will likely become more pronounced in coming years. Baby Boomers individually and collectively are going to redefine what it means to be elderly in the U.S. The sheer numbers of Baby Boomers will greatly affect public policy - as it relates to the elderly as well as to all other ages over the coming years. In 2006 the first Baby Boomer cohort will turn 60. This means that the effective time during which new public policy can be formulated before the Baby Boomers begin retiring in large numbers is rapidly diminishing. The associated public policy challenges are numerous and will need to be carefully examined in order to design and implement effective new policies in the very near future. The Baby Boomer generation is substantially different from earlier generations and policies need to account