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Báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học: Impacts of climate change on the flow in Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins

Biến đổi khí hậu (CC) là một trong những thách thức quan trọng nhất đối với con người trong thế kỷ 21. CC nghiêm túc sẽ ảnh hưởng đến đời sống, sản xuất và môi trường trên toàn thế giới. | VNU Journal of Science Earth Sciences 27 2011 98-106 Impacts of climate change on the flow in Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins Tran Hong Thai Tran Thuc Vietnam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Environment 23 62 Nguyen Chi Thanh Hanoi Vietnam Received 15 March 2010 received in revised form 31 March 2010 Abstract. Climate change CC is one of the most significant challenges facing human beings in the 21st century. CC will seriously affect lives production and environment worldwide. It also leads to the increasing temperature and one of its consequences is sea level rise resulting in unpredicted changes of the river flow. This may cause more severe floods serious drought and water shortage further to continent of the salinity intrusions and negatively effect on the human s lives socio-economic development. In order to assess the changes in flow in Hong - Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins under influences of CC in the article flow from two mentioned basins is analyzed under condition of CC. This is important basis to evaluate the effect of CC on other fields relating to water resources. In the article rainfall-runoff model MIKE 11 - NAM model was used to determine the flow in essential locations in Hong - Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins in the three CC scenarios A2 B2 and B1 1 . Keywords Climate change flow Hong-Thai Binh Dong Nai. 1. Introduction Hong-Thai Binh and Dong Nai river basins are two of the three biggest river basins in Vietnam. Impacts of CC on these river basins can be very serious. One of the most effected factors is the flow on the rivers. To estimate the changes of flow on two river basins MIKE 11-NAM was used. MIKE 11-NAM can simulate flow of basin based on rainfall and evaporation as input data. The result of the routing process is the discharge in the river. Rainfall and evaporation Corresponding author. Tel. 84-4-38359491 E-mail tranthai.vkttv@gmail.com data from 1980 to 2000 of meteorological stations in the basins were used for