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Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 5

Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 5. Leading J.P. Morgan Internet industry analyst Imran Khan provides a comprehensive look at key Internet industry characteristics, drivers, and trends in his seminal industry outlook, Nothing But Net. Geared toward Internet investing novices and experienced professionals, this book provides a detailed look at data points and trends that should be considered when investing in the Internet space. With almost 8 years of technology banking and investing experience, Khan provides a detailed analysis of multiple Internet sectors including online advertising, e-commerce, online travel, and social networking. This book is a must have for. | J.p Morgan Imran Khan 1-212 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Global Equity Research 05 January 2009 For our international forecast we expect two main drivers to impact eCommerce growth a a very weak consumer outlook with historically low consumer confidence in parts of the world including the UK and b continued shift of wallet share from offline retailers to online sellers. Both in the US and worldwide we expect the eCommerce to benefit from several drivers some region-specific and some general. Of primary importance among these is the growing adoption of broadband which is much more conducive to eCommerce growth than slower forms of Internet access. Other factors include 1 continued rises in online shopping penetration in Western Europe 2 continued investments by online retailers in broadening selection 3 improvements in shipping infrastructure 4 improved payment systems and 5 better fraud protection. Table 18 Global eCommerce Forecast Excluding Travel in millions Global eCommerce Forecast 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 08E - 11E CAGR US 88 780 106 851 128 708 151 443 160 563 168 270 187 958 207 505 8.9 Europe 52 430 72 690 96 631 123 698 152 537 140 740 170 942 198 200 9.1 Asia 31 972 43 054 55 556 69 705 90 585 112 573 127 949 139 617 15.5 ROW 9 440 13 216 18 502 25 903 34 970 41 963 55 811 73 113 27.9 Total 182 622 235 811 299 397 370 749 438 655 463 546 542 660 618 435 12.1 Y Y Growth 29.1 27.0 23.8 18.3 5.7 17.1 14.0 Source Department of Commerce Internet WorldStats UK eStats Forrester Research research Korea National Statistics Office Japanese Statistics Bureau eMarketer PhuCusWright TIA.org Jupiter company reports J.P. Morgan estimates Increasingly It s Amazon vs. Everybody Else Whereas 2007 saw the large-cap eCommerce companies grow revenue at a faster pace than the US market in 2008 it was Amazon maintaining its outperformance while eBay fell somewhat behind with decelerating sales and GMV growth as the Auctions business appears to be .