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Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 15

Nothing But Net 2009 Internet Investment Guide 15. Leading J.P. Morgan Internet industry analyst Imran Khan provides a comprehensive look at key Internet industry characteristics, drivers, and trends in his seminal industry outlook, Nothing But Net. Geared toward Internet investing novices and experienced professionals, this book provides a detailed look at data points and trends that should be considered when investing in the Internet space. With almost 8 years of technology banking and investing experience, Khan provides a detailed analysis of multiple Internet sectors including online advertising, e-commerce, online travel, and social networking. This book is a must have for. | J.p Morgan Imran Khan 1-212 622-6693 imran.t.khan@jpmorgan.com Global Equity Research 05 January 2009 Table 73 Russian Advertising Market Forecast Changes 2007 2008E 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E Nominal GDP bn - OLD 1 290 1 672 1 893 2 109 2 329 2 550 2 831 3 138 3 459 Nominal GDP bn - NEW 1 290 1 704 1 475 1 640 1 841 2 062 2 303 2 552 2 812 GDP deflator average - OLD 14 12 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 GDP deflator average - NEW 14 20 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 Real GDP growth - OLD 8.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 Real GDP growth - NEW 8.1 7.2 2.5 5.0 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.0 4.6 FX - OLD RUB 1 25.6 23.6 24.2 24.9 25.7 26.6 27.0 27.3 27.6 FX - NEW RUB 1 25.6 24.9 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.1 Total advertising market net RUB bn - OLD 168.6 215.4 264.8 319.0 379.0 444 5 517.9 596.2 682.7 Total advertising market net RUB bn - NEW 168.6 204.9 215.1 241.7 287.5 355.8 433.2 517.8 610.5 y y change - OLD 26 28 23 20 19 17 17 15 15 y y change - NEW 26 22 5 12 19 24 22 20 18 Total advertising market net bn - OLD 6.7 9.1 10.9 12.8 14.7 16.7 19.2 21.8 24.7 Total advertising market net bn - NEW 7.5 9.2 7.6 8.4 9.8 12.0 14.5 17.4 20.5 y y change - OLD 35 35 20 17 15 13 15 14 13 y y change - NEW 35 22 -17 10 17 22 21 19 18 Advertising spending net GDP - OLD 0.52 0.55 0.58 0.61 0.63 0.66 0.68 0.70 0.71 Advertising spending net GDP - NEW 0.52 0.48 0.46 0.46 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.61 0.66 y y change pp - OLD 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 y y change pp - NEW 0.01 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 To calculate net advertising market size gross market size is adjusted for VAT 18 and companies online revenue overlap which we estimate at 13 . Source AKAR Economic Development and Trade Ministry Zenith Optimedia Video International J.P. Morgan estimates. Outlook is deteriorating. In a 3Q08 trading update Rambler said that a reduction in advertising campaign commitments over the last few weeks was behind a 3 q q revenue decline. The company now guides for 2008 sales at the lower end of