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A prognostic theory for the systemic cost of bank
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A prognostic theory for the systemic cost of bank
Phương Chi
95
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We fragment the cost of bank failures within the national Deposit Insurance Fund into three components that include the resolution cost of the less-essential banks, the administrative rescue cost of the larger and more influential financial institutions, and the complete legislative bailout cost of the systemically vital banks. We develop a forecasting model that can help regulators to comprehend the expected systemic cost of future bank failures both over reasonably short-terms and through extended periods of time. The current theory can assist policy makers in better designing the reserves within the Deposit Insurance Fund and the exclusive premiums charged from banks that routinely subsidize these reserves. | Journal of Applied Finance Banking vol. 3 no. 4 2013 13-27 ISSN 1792-6580 print version 1792-6599 online Scienpress Ltd 2013 A Prognostic Theory for the Systemic Cost of Bank Failures Dror Parnes1 Abstract We fragment the cost of bank failures within the national Deposit Insurance Fund into three components that include the resolution cost of the less-essential banks the administrative rescue cost of the larger and more influential financial institutions and the complete legislative bailout cost of the systemically vital banks. We develop a forecasting model that can help regulators to comprehend the expected systemic cost of future bank failures both over reasonably short-terms and through extended periods of time. The current theory can assist policy makers in better designing the reserves within the Deposit Insurance Fund and the exclusive premiums charged from banks that routinely subsidize these reserves. JEL Classifications G21 G22 G28 Keywords Systemic Problem Bank Failure Predictive Model Accumulated Cost FDIC DIF 1 Introduction The savings and loan association crisis in the U.S. during the 1980s and 1990s resulted in the failure of 747 out of 3 234 thrift institutions and the legislative transfer of about 150 billion to depositors at these failed financial institutions. By its own estimates the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation FDIC sustained losses exceeding 36 billion to cover the 140 bank failures in 2009 alone. The FDIC has further updated its appraised cost of all U.S. bank failures in 2010 to a little more than 24 billion. On October 11 2011 the FDIC estimated the expected total losses from bank failures at 19 billion for the five year 1Finance Department College of Business BSN 3127 University of South Florida 4202 E. Fowler Ave. Tampa FL 33620 - 5500 Phone 813 974 - 6357 Fax 813 974 - 3084. Article Info Received March 19 2013. Revised April 11 2013. Published online July 1 2013 14 Dror Parnes period 2011 through 2015. However the FDIC admitted
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