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Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing

The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is designed. | Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing Nuclear Engineering and Technology 51 (2019) 198e206 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Nuclear Engineering and Technology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/net Original Article Evaluation of nuclear material accountability by the probability of detection for loss of Pu (LOPu) scenarios in pyroprocessing Seung Min Woo a, Sunil S. Chirayath a, b, * a Department of Nuclear Engineering, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3133, USA b Center for Nuclear Security Science and Policy Initiatives, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, 77843-3473, USA a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: A new methodology to analyze the nuclear material accountability for pyroprocessing system is devel- Received 18 April 2018 oped. The Pu-to-244Cm ratio quantification is one of the methods for Pu accountancy in pyroprocessing. Received in revised form However, an uncertainty in the Pu-to-244Cm ratio due to the non-uniform composition in used fuel 28 June 2018 assemblies can affect the accountancy of Pu. A random variable, LOPu, is developed to analyze the Accepted 20 August 2018 Available online 7 September 2018 probability of detection for Pu diversion of hypothetical scenarios at a pyroprocessing facility considering the uncertainty in Pu-to-244Cm ratio estimation. The analysis is carried out by the hypothesis testing and the event tree method. The probability of detection for diversion of 8 kg Pu is found to be less than 95% if Keywords: Safeguards a large size granule consisting of small size particles gets sampled for measurements. To increase the Nuclear material accountancy probability of detection more than 95%, first, a new Material Balance Area (MBA) structure consisting of Pyroprocessing more number of Key Measurement Points (KMPs) is .