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Logic tree approach for probabilistic typhoon wind hazard assessment

The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic uncertainty included in the wind intensity models and provides reasonably acceptable wind speeds. | Logic tree approach for probabilistic typhoon wind hazard assessment Nuclear Engineering and Technology 51 (2019) 607e617 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Nuclear Engineering and Technology journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/net Original Article Logic tree approach for probabilistic typhoon wind hazard assessment Young-Sun Choun*, Min-Kyu Kim Structural and Seismic Safety Research Team, Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, 989-111 Daedeok-daero, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon, 34057, Republic of Korea a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Global warming and climate change are increasing the intensity of typhoons and hurricanes and thus Received 21 March 2018 increasing the risk effects of typhoon and hurricane hazards on nuclear power plants (NPPs). To reflect Received in revised form these changes, a new NPP should be designed to endure design-basis hurricane wind speeds corre- 11 October 2018 sponding to an exceedance frequency of 10 7/yr. However, the short typhoon and hurricane observation Accepted 12 November 2018 Available online 17 November 2018 records and uncertainties included in the inputs for an estimation cause significant uncertainty in the estimated wind speeds for return periods of longer than 100,000 years. A logic-tree framework is introduced to handle the epistemic uncertainty when estimating wind Keywords: Logic tree speeds. Three key parameters of a typhoon wind field model, i.e., the central pressure difference, Monte Carlo simulation pressure profile parameter, and radius to maximum wind, are used for constructing logic tree branches. Probabilistic typhoon wind hazard The wind speeds of the simulated typhoons and the probable maximum wind speeds are estimated using assessment Monte Carlo simulations, and wind hazard curves are derived as a function of the annual exceedance Typhoon wind field model probability or return period. A logic tree decreases the epistemic