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Assessment of drought conditions in the Red River Delta
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Assessment of drought conditions in the Red River Delta
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The standardized precipitation index (SPI) is used to analyse drought conditions in the past 54 years (1961-2014) and to assess possible drought conditions in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the Red River Delta. The results show that with different timescales, the drought conditions of the Red River Delta tended to increase during the period of 1961-2014. | ASSESSMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE RED RIVER DELTA Nguyen Van Thang Mai Van Khiem Truong Thi Thanh Thuy Ha Truong Minh Pham Thi Hai Yen Nguyen Dang Mau Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology Hydrology and Climate Change Received 19 June 2017 Accepted 30 August 2017 Abstract The standardized precipitation index SPI is used to analyse drought conditions in the past 54 years 1961-2014 and to assess possible drought conditions in the 21st century under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the Red River Delta. The results show that with different timescales the drought conditions of the Red River Delta tended to increase during the period of 1961-2014. Compared to the baseline period 1986-2005 the number of drought spells are likely to decrease in the future under both scenarios. The projected drought changes of the 1- 3-month timescales are smaller than those of the 6- 12-month timescales. Remarkably the drought intensity of 1- 3-month timescales is likely to be more extreme by the end-21st century under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Keywords SPI drought Red River Delta. 1. Introduction Drought is one of the most common natural disasters in Viet Nam that seriously affects environment economy society and human health. According to the World Meteorological Organization drought can be classified into four groups meteorological hydrological agricultural and socio-economic drought 15 . Unlike other types of natural disasters the effects of drought often accumulate slowly over a considerable period of time and may last for years after the termination of the drought event. As a result the meteorological drought often occurs firstly followed by agricultural and hydrological droughts. Recently due to the effects of climate change droughts have increased in intensity and frequency significantly affecting agriculture forestry industry water resources hydroelectric power generation natural environment and human life etc. in the country s regions. In particular the Red River delta and the
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