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Giải pháp dự báo ngắn hạn về tăng trưởng KInh tế Việt Nam
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A problem is arisen as follows: With respect to current macroeconomic data of Viet Nam which forecast models are suitable with forecasting short-term growth of the economy and which main macroeconomic issues can be also forecasted by that models? The problem is a challenge for institutions that are in charge of providing socio - economic forecasting information for the Government and the Premier Minister. The goal of this paper is to resolve a part of the arisen problem. | T~p chi Tin hoc va Dieu khi€n hQC, T.23, S.4 (2007), 374-386 ',. GIAI PHAP ou ,. ~ ' _ , ,c , BAD NGAN H~N VE TANG TRUONG KINH TE VI;T NAM DO V AN THANH B9 Ke hooch. Abstract. In order to regulate to have forecasting short-term the Vietnam va Diiu tu market economy in an efficient manner, it is important growth of the economy. A problem is arisen as follows: With respect to current macroeconomic data of Viet Nam which forecast models are suitable with forecasting short-term growth of the economy and which main macroeconomic issues can be also forecasted by that models? The problem is a challenge for institutions that are in charge of providing socio - economic forecasting information for the Government and the Premier Minister. The goal of this paper is to resolve a part of the arisen problem. Tom Hit. De dieu hanh hieu qui nen kinh te thi trircng dir baa ngiin han ve tang truong a mroc ta hien nay dieu quan trong phai kinh te. MQt van de d~t ra la: trong trirong hop dir li~u kinh te VI mo a mro c ta hien nay thi mo hinh dir baa nao la phu hop vo i dir baa ngiin han ve tang trucng kinh te va nhirng van de kinh te vi mo chu yeu nao co the diroc dir baa boi mo hlnh do? Van de nay hien dang la thach thirc doi voi cac don vi, to chirc co nhiem vu cung cap thong tin dir baa kinh te-xa hoi cho Chinh phu va Thu tircng Chinh phu. MI,lC dich cua bai baa nay la giii quyet mot phan cua cau hoi diroc d~t ra. DAT VAN DE MQt trong 3 nhiem vu chu yeu cua Chinh phu mroc ta nam 2007 la duy tri diroc toc dQ tang trtrong kinh te cao er mire 8,5%/ nam. De dat diroc mtrc tang truo ng nay, din c6 nhieu giai phap trong d6 sir chi d00 dieu hanh cua Chinh phu va Thu tuorig chinh phu duoc XEtC dinh la mot trang nhirng giai phap quan trong nhat. De thirc hien tot giai phap nay can xay dung duoc bao cao tong quan kinh te quoc gia thee quy va thong tin dir bao tirong doi chinb xac kha nang phat trieri kinh te er mot vai quy tiep theo. Day la nhiem vu va .