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Vietnam quarterly macroeconomic report: Quarter 3 - 2015

Vietnam’s economic growth is quickening, fueled by the momentum of the manufacturing and construction sector, while the growth of agriculture and servic. The trade deficit tended to drop after a surprise surge in Q1. The trade balance was in a slight deficit of USD 700 million in Q3. | VEPR VIET NAM QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT Quarter 3 - 2015 Supported by Australian Government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Australian Government SUMMARY The world economy is generally accommodative thanks to low prices of commodities and positive improvements in export markets U.S. EU and Japan . However the downturn of China s economy and the prospect of the U.S. interest rate hike raise concerns about hot money fleeing emerging markets. Vietnam s economic growth is quickening fueled by the momentum of the manufacturing and construction sector while the growth of agriculture and service remains slow. Due to low energy prices and a falling external demand for rice CPI rose only 0.4 during the first nine months. The core inflation rate seemed to be more positive at 1.87 . The trade deficit tended to drop after a surprise surge in Q1. The trade balance was in a slight deficit of USD 700 million in Q3. The falling crude oil price put pressure on the budget revenue while domestic revenue sources were promoted especially revenue from the land use right. Consumption tended to speed up while social investment was stable. There was a large boom in registered FDI and this trend could be strengthened by the accomplishment of the TPP negotiation. Credit has been expanding at a robust pace and gradually placing pressure on interest levels. Credit grew 10.78 until September and the forecasted figure for 2015 could be up to 17 . The real estate market continued to warm up and hit a record number of sold apartments in Q2. The high-class segment dominated while the real estate price index increased slightly. Having been affected by the CNY devaluation SBV increased the average interbank exchange rate by 1 and expanded the transaction band to 3 while continuing to commit themselves to taking no more adjustment until the beginning of 2016 and tightening the conditions for buying foreign currency. The pressure on the exchange rate