tailieunhanh - Lecture Operations management - Chapter 4: Forecasting

When you complete this chapter you should be able to: Understand the three time horizons and which models apply for each; explain when to use each of the four qualitative models; apply the naive, moving-average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods; compute three measures of forecast accuracy; develop seasonal indices; conduct a regression and correlation analysis; use a tracking signal. | Operations Management Forecasting Chapter 4 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Outline GLOBAL COMPANY PROFILE: TUPPERWARE CORPORATION WHAT IS FORECASTING? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle TYPES OF FORECASTS THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING Human Resources Capacity Supply-Chain Management SEVEN STEPS IN THE FORECASTING SYSTEM 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Outline - Continued FORECASTING APPROACHES Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods TIME-SERIES FORECASTING Decomposition of Time Series Naïve Approach Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Trend Projections Seasonal Variations in Data Cyclic Variations in Data 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of . | Operations Management Forecasting Chapter 4 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Outline GLOBAL COMPANY PROFILE: TUPPERWARE CORPORATION WHAT IS FORECASTING? Forecasting Time Horizons The Influence of Product Life Cycle TYPES OF FORECASTS THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OF FORECASTING Human Resources Capacity Supply-Chain Management SEVEN STEPS IN THE FORECASTING SYSTEM 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Outline - Continued FORECASTING APPROACHES Overview of Qualitative Methods Overview of Quantitative Methods TIME-SERIES FORECASTING Decomposition of Time Series Naïve Approach Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Exponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment Trend Projections Seasonal Variations in Data Cyclic Variations in Data 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Outline - Continued ASSOCIATIVE FORECASTING METHODS: REGRESSION AND CORRELATION ANALYSIS Using Regression Analysis to Forecast Standard Error of the Estimate Correlation Coefficients for Regression Lines Multiple-Regression Analysis MONITORING AND CONTROLLING FORECASTS Adaptive Smoothing Focus Forecasting FORECASTING IN THE SERVICE SECTOR 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Learning Objectives When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Identify or Define: Forecasting Types of forecasts Time horizons Approaches to forecasts 4- PowerPoint presentation to accompany Heizer/Render – Principles of Operations Management, 5e, and Operations Management, 7e Learning Objectives - continued When you complete this chapter, you should be able to : Describe or Explain: Moving averages Exponential smoothing Trend projections Regression and