tailieunhanh - Lecture Business statistics in practice (7/e): Chapter 19 - Bowerman, O'Connell, Murphree

Chapter 19 - Decision theory. After studying this chapter you will be able to: Make decisions under uncertainty and under risk and assess the value of perfect information, make decisions using posterior analysis and assess the value of sample information, make decisions using utility theory. | Chapter 19 Decision Theory Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Decision Theory Introduction to Decision Theory Decision Making Using Posterior Probabilities Introduction to Utility Theory 19- Introduction to Decision Theory States of nature: A set of potential future conditions that affects decision results Alternatives: A set of alternative actions for the decision maker to chose from Payoffs: A set of payoffs for each alternative under each potential state of nature LO19-1: Make decisions under uncertainty and under risk and assess the value of perfect information. 19- Decision Making Under Uncertainty Maximin: Identify the minimum (or worst) possible payoff for each alternative and select the alternative that maximizes the worst possible payoff (Pessimistic) Maximax: Identify the maximum (or best) possible payoff for each alternative and select the alternative that maximizes the best . | Chapter 19 Decision Theory Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Decision Theory Introduction to Decision Theory Decision Making Using Posterior Probabilities Introduction to Utility Theory 19- Introduction to Decision Theory States of nature: A set of potential future conditions that affects decision results Alternatives: A set of alternative actions for the decision maker to chose from Payoffs: A set of payoffs for each alternative under each potential state of nature LO19-1: Make decisions under uncertainty and under risk and assess the value of perfect information. 19- Decision Making Under Uncertainty Maximin: Identify the minimum (or worst) possible payoff for each alternative and select the alternative that maximizes the worst possible payoff (Pessimistic) Maximax: Identify the maximum (or best) possible payoff for each alternative and select the alternative that maximizes the best possible payoff (Optimistic) Expected value criterion: Using prior probabilities for the states of nature, compute the expected payoff for each alternative and select the alternative with the largest expected payoff LO19-1 19- Decision Making Using Posterior Probabilities When we use expected value to choose the best alternative, we call this prior decision analysis Often, sample information can be obtained to help us make a better decision In this case, we compute expected values by using posterior probabilities We call this posterior decision analysis LO19-2: Make decisions using posterior analysis and assess the value of sample information. 19- Bayes’ Theorem Calculations LO19-2 19- Introduction to Utility Theory Utilities are measures of the relative value of varying dollar payoffs for an individual decision maker and thus capture the decision maker’s attitude toward risk Under certain mild assumptions about rational behavior, decision makers should .

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