tailieunhanh - PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION: IMPACTS, MITIGATION, & RISK MANAGEMENT

Despite a variety of processes and the availability of raw-material sources, the widespread utilisation of annual plants in pulping has not been technically or economically feasible in Western countries due to the lack of a simple and environmentally efficient pulping method and the problems associated with raw material storage and logistics. An ideal non-wood pulping process is simple and environmentally efficient and can be applied on a small scale. Essential to the process is whole chain utilisation of agro-fibres; where the most valuable proportion would be used for human or animal food or commodity production, the. | PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION IMPACTS MITIGATION RISK MANAGEMENT Robert L. Hirsch SAIC Project Leader Roger Bezdek MlSl Robert Wendling MISI February 2005 DISCLAIMER This report was prepared as an account of work sponsored by an agency of the United States Government. Neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof nor any of their employees makes any warranty express or implied or assumes any legal liability or responsibility for the accuracy completeness or usefulness of any information apparatus product or process disclosed or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product process or service by trade name trademark manufacturer or otherwise does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement recommendation or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof. 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I. INTRODUCTION II. PEAKING OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION III. WHY TRANSITION WILL BE TIME CONSUMING IV. LESSONS FROM PAST EXPERIENCE V. LEARNING FROM NATURAL GAS VI. MITIGATION OPTIONS ISSUES A. Conservation B. Improved Oil Recovery C. Heavy Oil and Oil Sands D. Gas-To-Liquids E. Liquids from Domestic Sources F. Fuel Switching to Electricity G. Other Fuel Switching H. Hydrogen I. Factors That Can Cause Delay VII. A WORLD PROBLEM VIII. THREE SCENARIOS IX. MARKET SIGNALS AS PEAKING IS APPROACHED X. WILD CARDS XI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUDING REMARKS APPENDICES