tailieunhanh - EFFECTS OF TARIFFS AND SANITARY BARRIERS ON HIGH- AND LOW-VALUE POULTRY TRADE

The major theme of this study component involves carrying out projections of demand for poultry feeds and its implications for wheat and maize production. For this purpose, the projection of poultry and poultry products has to be carried out first. Two approaches can be employed to estimate the medium and long- term demand for use of grain as poultry feeds. One approach involves projecting demand derived from the consumption of poultry products (meat and eggs). The approach may be called "Demand Approach" 2 . In usual conditions, demand for poultry products is expected to increase with the increase in consumer income. | MTID DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 64 EFFECTS OF TARIFFS AND SANITARY BARRIERS ON HIGH- AND LOW-VALUE POULTRY TRADE Everett B. Peterson and David Orden Markets Trade and Institutions Division International Food Policy Research Institute 2033 K Street . Washington . 20006 . http www. February 2004 Copyright 2004 International Food Policy Research Institute MTID Discussion Papers contain preliminary material and research results and are circulated prior to a full peer review in order to stimulate discussion and critical comment. It is expected that most Discussion Papers will eventually be published in some other form and that their content may also be revised. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT We thank Donna Roberts ERS USDA Timothy Josling Stanford University and Mark Gehlhar ERS USDA for comments and early contributions to this research. We also thank ERS USDA and the European Commission for financial support of this research through a cooperative agreement with Virginia Tech and grant to IFPRI respectively. i ABSTRACT A competitive partial-equilibrium spatial model with heterogeneous goods is constructed to evaluate effects of the removal of tariffs tariff-rate quotas and sanitary regulations on world poultry trade. The model distinguishes between high-value mostly white meat and low-value mostly dark meat poultry products and simulates the trade flows between eight exporting and importing countries and regions. Removing all barriers simultaneously has larger impact on trade than only removing tariffs and tariff-rate quotas. Imposition of sanitary barriers against US products by Russia shifts trade flows but does not have large net impacts on US producers. .