tailieunhanh - ECONOMIC REAL ESTATE TRENDS

In this Agrodok, we mainly refer to the extensive and semi-intensive farming. Intensive farming with . battery cages will not be treated. When chickens are free to roam and scavenge, we talk about exten- sive, free-range chicken farms. The level of capital and labour invest- ment is low. Housing is not important. Intensive systems, developed for specialised breeds, are estimated to be in use for about 30% of the poultry population in Africa. These are mainly found in and around urban areas with good markets for eggs and chicken meat. Intensive chicken farms require more investment of both capital and labour,. | Making Risk Rewarding ECONOMIC REAL ESTATE TRENDS PMI MORTGAGE INSURANCE CO. WINTER 2008 In This Issue Economic and Real Estate Trends in the Nation s MSAs Enhancements to the PMI . Market Risk Index Model Housing Market Recovery DAVID W. BERSON . Chief Economist and Strategist THE PMI GROUP INC. LAVAUGHN M. HENRY . Director of Economic Analysis PMI MORTGAGE INSURANCE CO. What is a Normal Housing Market By David W. Berson Chief Economist and Strategist The PMI Group Inc. Over the past year home sales have dropped by 22 percent single-family housing starts have plummeted by almost 35 percent and nationwide home values have slipped by about percent. Clearly it has been far from a normal year in the housing market and 2006 was weak as well. On the other hand the several years before these were just as unusual for housing but from the opposite perspective. So just what is a normal year for hous- ing and will we ever see one again Historically the housing sector has been one of the most volatile in the . economy. The reason for this is that to a large extent home sales are driven from year to year by housing affordability which in turn usually is affected most strongly by movements in interest rates. Whether it is because of changes in monetary policy at the Federal Reserve adjustments in inflation expectations movements in foreign capital flows or just increases or decreases in economic growth interest rates tend to be volatile thus moving housing demand continued on page 2 OFHEO House Price Appreciation Rates All Transactions Purchase Only 2 The famous economist Herb Stein once noted If something cannot go on forever it will stop. That is probably the best way to view the housing market today. We know that given the combination of demographics job and income growth and the level of interest rates housing demand can t fall without bounds. Over longer periods of time other elements most notably demographics .

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