tailieunhanh - China’s Economic Rise—A Technical Note (Draft)

Chickens in extensive and semi-intensive poultry production systems account for more than 75% of all poultry in the South. Owned by smallholders in rural areas, these birds provide food security and fam- ily income and play an important role in socio-cultural events. Poultry is an important farm species in almost all countries. It is an important source of animal protein, and can be raised in situations with limited feed and housing resources. Chickens are ‘waste- converters’: they ‘convert’ a scavenged feed resource base into animal protein. They are therefore by far the most important species for gen- erating income for rural families | China s Economic Rise A Technical Note Draft Albert Keidel1 Senior Associate Carnegie Endowment for International Peace July 9 2008 Introduction This draft technical note accompanies the release of the Carnegie Endowment policy brief No. 61 China s Economic Rise--Fact and Fiction the policy brief and is a minimal presentation of supporting statistical and other materials that explain and elaborate on the assertions and analyses in the policy brief. The sections are short and focused on the technical issue or issues at hand. This note does not try to replicate the narrative of the policy brief but is rather intended to be read with it to the extent that related elements of the policy brief raise questions in the reader s mind. Domestic-led Growth The policy brief s conclusion that China s growth is not export-led but is rather domestic driven rests on at least two sets of observations. The most intuitive explanation notes that China s fast and slow growth periods run against the grain of . growth booms and recessions. This can be seen in Figure 1 which shows that while important . trading partners in Europe and East Asia exhibit GDP growth patterns similar to America s often with a lag of one year or two. This pattern seems to be continuing in 2008 when the . economy is slowing ______Figure 1. Chinese GDP Growth Independence from . GDP Fluctuations European and non-China East Asian economies often shift with . GDP fluctuations sometimes lagged or interrupted as during the Asian Financial Crisis. But China s GDP growth has surged when the . economy slumped just the opposite pattern from that for other . trade partners. Sources IMF International Financial Statistics various issues respective country statistical bureau web sites China National Bureau of Statistics and author s calculations. 1 The author wishes to extend special thanks to Ms. Yang ZHANG of the Carnegie Endowment for outstanding research assistance. The policy brief and this .