tailieunhanh - A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF HR 2454 ON U.S. AGRICULTURE

The AgVANTAGE leasing program is a working model of a type of credit line. The program currently provides funding support (co-financing or partial guarantees) to share risk on equipment leases to the agricultural sector. This program was developed as a support service for the production, processing, and marketing components of the AgVANTAGE project. The leasing program is funded with $500,000 and combined with the leverage of the leasing companies’ capital it is projected to eventually provide $1 million in assistance. The direct financing impact of this program is restricted somewhat by its limited funding, but its. | A PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF HR 2454 ON . AGRICULTURE Office of the Chief Economist . Department of Agriculture July 22 2009 Executive Summary USDA performed a preliminary economic analysis of the impacts of House-passed climate legislation HR 2454 on . agriculture. The analysis assumes no technological change no alteration of inputs in agriculture and no increase in demand for bio-energy as a result of higher energy prices. Therefore it overestimates the impact of the climate legislation on agriculture costs in the short 2012-18 medium 2027-2033 and long-term 2042 to 2048 . In USDA s analysis short-term costs remain low in part because of provisions in HR 2454 that reduce the impacts of the bill on fertilizer costs. In fact the impact on net farm income is less than a 1 decrease. In the short run agricultural offset markets may cover these costs. Over the mediumterm and long-term costs to agriculture rise but remain modest and decreases in net farm income respectively . However benefits to agriculture from an offsets market rise over time and will likely overtake costs in the medium and long term. Other studies that account for the impact of higher energy prices on input substitution and demand for bio-energy find that HR2454 leads to higher agricultural incomes even without offsets. In summary USDA s analysis shows that the agricultural sector will have modest costs in the short-term and net benefits - perhaps significant net benefits - over the long-term. Overview This analysis examines the potential effects on US agriculture of the cap-and-trade program that would be implemented under HR 2454 the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 as reported by the House Committee on Energy and Commerce on May 21. The analysis is based on the energy price effects estimated by EPA and published in their June 23 analysis of HR 2454. The effects of higher energy costs on agricultural supply demand prices and net farm income are compared to

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