tailieunhanh - World Economic Situation and Prospects 2006

When the IMF focused exclusively on policy-driven fiscal adjustments it got results that were consistent with standard Keynesian analysis. In the short run, fiscal adjustment is contractionary, with cuts in spending being more contractionary than increases in taxes. This is consistent with both the theoretical view that spending will more directly impact the economy than taxes and also a large amount of research that has found higher multipliers for changes in spending than changes in taxes. 5 In the same vein as the Alesina work, Goldman Sachs recently produced an analysis that purports to show that fiscal adjustment can be. | World Economic Situation and Prospects 2006 United Nations New York 2006 The full publication is available from http esa policy wess and is issued in English only under the title World Economic Situation and Prospects 2006 . Executive Summary 1 Executive Summary The global outlook Moderate world economic growth in 2006 World economic growth slowed noticeably in 2005 from the strong expansion in 2004. The world economy is expected to continue to grow at this more moderate pace of about 3 per cent during This rate of growth is nonetheless the same as the average of the past decade. The United States economy remains the main engine of global economic growth but the dynamic growth of China India and a few other large developing economies is becoming increasingly important. Economic growth slowed down in most of the developed economies during 2005 with no recovery expected in 2006. Growth will moderate further to per cent in the United States of America while lacklustre performance will still prevail in Europe with growth reaching a meagre per cent in 2006. The recovery in Japan is expected to continue albeit at a very modest pace of around 2 per cent. Strong yet insufficient growth in the poorest countries Generally economic growth in most parts of the developing world and the economies in transition is well above the world average. On average developing economies are expected to expand at a rate of per cent and the economies in transition at per cent despite the fact that these economies may face larger challenges during 2006. While China and India are by far the most dynamic economies the rest of East and South Asia is expected to grow by more than 5 per cent. Latin America is lagging somewhat behind with growth of about per cent but African economic growth is expected to remain solidly above 5 per cent. Growing at per cent the least developed countries LDCs are faring even better reaching the fastest average rate .

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