tailieunhanh - The E§ect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth

Access Economics defines the economic contribution of international students as deriving from the income flow from this expenditure, in other words, the value added component of this expenditure. Value added is that part of the expenditure which either forms the basis of income for labour or gross operating surplus (GOS) to capital owners, after allowing for spending on intermediate inputs from other industries and taxes on production (net of subsidies). The value added component is calculated using well‐established multipliers from the ABS’s 2005‐6 input‐output tables for Australia. From these estimates, employment multipliers are used to calculate the level of employment associated with onshore international education. . | The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth Quamrul H. Ashraff David N. Weilz Joshua Wildex October 2012 Abstract We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling the size and age structure of the population capital accumulation parental time input into child-rearing and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters we find that such a change would raise output per capita by percent at a horizon of 20 years and by percent at a horizon of 50 years. Keywords Fertility Population size Age structure Child quality Worker experience Labor force participation Capital accumulation Natural resources Income per capita JEL Codes E17 J11 J13 J18 J21 J22 J24 O11 O13 O55 We thank Gunther Fink Andrew Foster Stelios Michalopoulos Alexia Prskawetz and participants at Bar-Ilan Univeristy the 2010 NEUDC Conference the IUSSP Seminar on Demographics and Macroeconomic Performance Paris 2010 the 4th Annual PopPov Research Conference on Population Reproductive Health and Economic Development Cape Town 2010 and the conference China and the West 1950-2050 Economic Growth Demographic Transition and Pensions University of Zurich 2011 for comments and Daniel Prinz for research assistance. Financial support from the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation and the MacArthur Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. Williams College and Harvard Kennedy School. Brown University and NBER. x University of South Florida. 1 Introduction How does population growth affect economic .

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