tailieunhanh - World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012: Global economic outlook

This report presents the results of this exercise: the first chapter reports the general analysis of the impact of the crisis and the appropriate policy responses, and the second chapter reviews current national responses. This report was prepared by Dominique Guellec and Sacha Wunsch-Vincent of the OECD Secretariat. It has benefitted from inputs, co-ordination and oversight by Jean Guinet, Dirk Pilat, Graham Vickery and Andrew Wyckoff (OECD). The OECD Secretariat would like to express its appreciation to all OECD countries for responding to the questionnaire and working on all phases of this report. . | PRE-RELEASE World Economic Situation and Prospects 2012 Global economic outlook United Nations New York 2011 1 Chapter I Global economic outlook Prospects for the world economy in 2012-2013 Following two years of anaemic and uneven recovery from the global financial crisis the world economy is teetering on the brink of another major downturn. Output growth has already slowed considerably during 2011 especially in the developed countries. The baseline forecast foresees continued anaemic growth during 2012 and 2013. Such growth is far from sufficient to deal with the continued jobs crises in most developed economies and will drag down income growth in developing countries. Even this sombre outlook may be too optimistic. A serious renewed global downturn is looming because of persistent weaknesses in the major developed economies related to problems left unresolved in the aftermath of the Great Recession of 2008-2009. The problems stalking the global economy are multiple and interconnected. The most pressing challenges are the continued jobs crisis and the declining prospects for economic growth especially in the developed countries. As unemployment remains high at nearly 9 per cent and incomes stagnate the recovery is stalling in the short run because of the lack of aggregate demand. But as more and more workers remain out of a job for a long period especially young workers medium-term growth prospects also suffer because of the detrimental effect on workers skills and experience. The rapidly cooling economy is both a cause and an effect of the sovereign debt crises in the euro area and of fiscal problems elsewhere. The sovereign debt crises in a number of European countries worsened in the second half of 2011 and aggravated the weaknesses in the balance sheets of banks sitting on related assets. Even bold steps by the Governments of the euro area countries to reach an orderly sovereign debt workout for Greece were met with continued financial market turbulence and .

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