tailieunhanh - World Economic outlook 2012: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth

Second, lower output and lower income, together with a poorly functioning financial system, imply that consumption may have depended more on current than on future income, and that investment may have depended more on current than on future profits, with both effects leading to larger multipliers (Eggertsson and Krugman, 2012). 4 Third, and consistent with some of the above mechanisms, a number of empirical studies have found that fiscal multipliers are likely to be larger when there is a great deal of slack in the economy. Based on . data, Auerbach and Gorodnichenko (2012b) have found that fiscal multipliers. | World Economic and Financial Surveys WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2012 Coping with High Debt and Sluggish Growth International Monetary Fund 2012 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Composition Maryland Composition Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook International Monetary Fund World economic outlook a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. Washington DC International Monetary Fund 1980 v. 28 cm. 1981 1984 Occasional paper International Monetary Fund 0251-6365 . 1986 World economic and financial surveys 0256-6877 Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles. Has occasional updates 1984 1. Economic development Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting Periodicals. 3. Economic policy Periodicals. 4. International economic relations Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series Occasional paper International Monetary Fund . III. Series World economic and financial surveys. ISBN 978-1-61635-389-6 Publication orders may be placed online by fax or through the mail International Monetary Fund Publication Services . Box 92780 Washington DC 20090 . Tel. 202 623-7430 Fax 202 623-7201 E-mail publications@ CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions xi Further Information and Data xii Preface xiii Foreword xv Executive Summary xvii Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Recent Developments 1 Prospects Are for Sluggish and Bumpy Growth 5 Cyclical Indicators Point to Slack in Advanced Economies 11 Policy Requirements 19 Special Feature Commodity Market Review 29 Box . Are We Underestimating Short-Term Fiscal Multipliers 41 Box . The Implications of High Public Debt in Advanced Economies 44 Box . How Does Uncertainty Affect Economic Performance 49 Box . Unconventional Energy in the United States 54 Box . Food Supply Crunch Who Is Most Vulnerable 56 References 59 Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 61 Europe