tailieunhanh - ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DRUG ABUSE AND ILLICIT TRAFFICKING

With many economies in fiscal consolidation mode, there has been an intense debate about the size of fiscal multipliers. At the same time, activity has disappointed in a number of economies undertaking fiscal consolidation. A natural question therefore is whether forecasters have underestimated fiscal multipliers, that is, the short-term effects of government spending cuts or tax hikes on economic activity. In a box published in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook (WEO; IMF, 2012b), we focused on this issue by regressing the forecast error for real GDP growth on forecasts of fiscal consolidation. Under rational expectations, and assuming. | Number 6 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF DRUG ABUSE AND ILLICIT TRAFFICKING NOTE References to dollars are to United States dollars unless otherwise stated. This publication has not been formally edited. Contents Introduction .1 I. Extent of the illicit drug problem .3 A. Production .4 B. Distribution and illicit C. II. Economic consequences of drug abuse and trafficking. 12 A. Apparent benefits and costs of drug abuse and trafficking. 12 1. Benefits . 12 2. Costs . 15 B. Work employment and productivity . 16 1. Influence of drugs on employment status and productivity . 16 2. Generation of employment. 19 C. Prices and 1. Determinants .20 2. Price elasticity .23 3. 4. Income D. Trade and balance of E. Finance and 1. Funds for 2. 3. 4. Macroeconomic management .29 III. Social consequences of drug abuse and trafficking .30 A. Family and community .30 B. C. D. E. Crime corruption and dangers for civil society .37 IV. Notes .42 .