tailieunhanh - CONCEPTUALIZING AND MEASURING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE

Under a BAU scenario, the stock of greenhouse gases could more than treble by the end of the century, giving at least a 50% risk of exceeding 5°C global average temperature change during the following decades. This would take humans into unknown territory. An illustration of the scale of such an increase is that we are now only around 5°C warmer than in the last ice age. Such changes would transform the physical geography of the world. A radical change in the physical geography of the world must have powerful implications for the. | CONCEPTUALIZING AND MEASURING ECONOMIC RESILIENCE LINO BRIGUGLIO GORDON CORDIN A STEPHANIE BUGEJA NADIA FARRUGIA Economics Department University of Malta Tel Fax 356 21340335 Email Summary. This paper develops a conceptual and methodological framework for the analysis and measurement of economic resilience. The working definition of economic resilience adopted in this paper is the nurtured ability of an economy to recover from or adjust to the effects of adverse shocks to which it may be inherently exposed. This concept is used to provide an explanation as to why a number of inherently vulnerable countries have attained relatively high levels of GDP per capita. The paper also presents a tentative approach aimed at developing an index of economic resilience covering four aspects namely macroeconomic stability microeconomic market efficiency governance and social development. Keywords Economic resilience economic vulnerability small states macroeconomic stability market efficiency governance. 1. INTRODUCTION Many small states1 manage to generate a relatively high GDP per capita when compared to other developing countries2 in spite of their high exposure to external economic shocks. This would seem to suggest that there are factors which may offset the disadvantages associated with such vulnerability. This phenomenon was termed by Briguglio 2003 the Singapore Paradox referring to the reality that Singapore is highly exposed to external shocks and yet this island state has managed to register high rates of economic growth and high GNP per capita. This reality can be explained in terms of the ability of Singapore to build its economic resilience. Economic vulnerability is well-documented in the literature from the conceptual and empirical viewpoints see for example Briguglio 1995 and 2003 Crowards 2000 and Atkins et al 2000 . Most studies on economic vulnerability provide empirical evidence that small states particularly island ones tend to be .