tailieunhanh - Báo cáo khoa học: "Hunting for the Black Swan: Risk Mining from Text"

In the business world, analyzing and dealing with risk permeates all decisions and actions. However, to date, risk identification, the first step in the risk management cycle, has always been a manual activity with little to no intelligent software tool support. In addition, although companies are required to list risks to their business in their annual SEC filings in the USA, these descriptions are often very highlevel and vague. | Hunting for the Black Swan Risk Mining from Text Jochen L. Leidner and Frank Schilder Thomson Reuters Corporation Research Development 610 Opperman Drive St. Paul MN 55123 USA Abstract In the business world analyzing and dealing with risk permeates all decisions and actions. However to date risk identification the first step in the risk management cycle has always been a manual activity with little to no intelligent software tool support. In addition although companies are required to list risks to their business in their annual SEC filings in the USA these descriptions are often very high-level and vague. In this paper we introduce Risk Mining which is the task of identifying a set of risks pertaining to a business area or entity. We argue that by combining Web mining and Information Extraction IE techniques risks can be detected automatically before they materialize thus providing valuable business intelligence. We describe a system that induces a risk taxonomy with concrete risks . interest rate changes at its leaves and more abstract risks . financial risks closer to its root node. The taxonomy is induced via a bootstrapping algorithms starting with a few seeds. The risk taxonomy is used by the system as input to a risk monitor that matches risk mentions in financial documents to the abstract risk types thus bridging a lexical gap. Our system is able to automatically generate company specific risk maps which we demonstrate for a corpus of earnings report conference calls. 1 Introduction Any given human activity with a particular intended outcome is bound to face a non-zero likelihood of failure. In business companies are exposed to market risks such as new competitors disruptive technologies change in customer attitudes or a changes in government legislation that can dramatically affect their profitability or threaten their business model or mode of operation. Therefore any tool to assist in the elicitation of .