tailieunhanh - What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? - Marc Townsend

What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? by Marc Townsend presented risk, linkes markets, office rent cyce, yields, adding value, regional comparison. | What do we need to get right next time for a sustainable property market in Vietnam? Presented by: Marc Townsend Managing Director Monday 21st September 2009 Risks -Inflation -Infrastructure -Transparency -The past was too good to give up -NPLs -Valuations -Capital gains tax issues on the transfer of property -Speculation is so easy -Land clearance and tender and auction process 2 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Asia economic outlook - 2009 GDP growth Clouds over growth but positive prospect Clouds over growth and dimmer prospect Recent deterioration and uncertain outlook Continued deterioration TAIWAN HONG KONG CHINA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN INDIA THAILAND VIETNAM SINGAPORE MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILLIPPINES Source: IMA (April 2009) 3 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Asia economic outlook - 2010 GDP growth Clouds over growth but positive prospect Clouds over growth and dimmer prospect Recent deterioration and uncertain outlook Continued deterioration TAIWAN HONG KONG CHINA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN INDIA THAILAND VIETNAM SINGAPORE MALAYSIA INDONESIA PHILLIPPINES Source: IMA (April 2009) 4 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Linked Markets Real estate capital values trend closely with domestic gold and stock prices VN Index Closed at 15 Sept 2009 130% Source: HSC Securities Vietnam Gold 15% Source: Giavang 5 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Office Rent Cycle 6 CB RICHARD ELLIS VIETNAM Where are we going? What have we learned? |September 2009 Complexity of deals Investment Sales change shape Foreigners to Locals Locals to Foreigners Sale of Shares of single asset companies En-bloc Sales during construction Sale of the Retail Podium of mixed-use .