tailieunhanh - Forecasting Technique Familiarity, Satisfaction, Usage, and Application

What distinguishes point of view editing is that the object is shown from the character’s optical vantage point – . directly through the character’s eyes. (So if the character is drunk, for example, this might mean that the shot is deliberately out of focus with the camera moving from side to side – a rolling shot. Some of the most famous examples of the Point of View shot (POV) are to be found in the films of Alfred Hitchcock. (Martin Scorsese discusses Hitchcock’s use of POV shots in part one of the documentary series, the American Cinema. This technique is. | Journal of Forecasting Vol. 14 465-476 1995 Forecasting Technique Familiarity Satisfaction Usage and Application JOHN T. MENTZER University of Tennessee USA KENNETH B. KAHN Georgia Institute of Technology USA ABSTRACT A ten-year retrospective study ofMentzcrandCox 1984 wasundertaken to answer the question Have sales forecasting practiceschangedoverthe past ten years A mail survey of 207 forecasting executives was employed to investigate this important question. Findings revealed both discrepancies and similarities between today s sales forecasting practices and those of ten years ago. One particular finding indicated greaterreliance on and satisfaction with quantitative forecasting techniques today versus ten years ago. Another indicated that forecasting accuracyhasnot I mproved over the past ten years even though the familiarity and usage of various sophisticated sales forecasting techniques have increased. Future research and managerial implications arc discussed based on these and other findings. KEY WORDS forecasting techniques accuracy usage s iitis lic .tion INTRODUL 1 ION Ten years after Menmer and Cox 1984 published their findings on sales important question becomes Have sales forecastingpracticeschangedsincetheearly 1980s To begin to answer this question the authors reviewed the studies on sales forecasting practices published after 1984 and used this review to guide the replication of the Mentzer and Cox 1984 study. Ivientzer and Cox focused on the relationships between sales forecastingandtechnique familiarity satisfaction usage and application. As shown in Table I the results ofMcntzcr and Cox 1984 have received general support from studies by Fildes and Lusk. 1984- . Sparkes and McHugh 1984 Dalrymple 1987 Wilson and Daub--k 1989 and Drury 1990 . However Fildes and Lusk 1984 reported greater practitionerfamiliaritywithBox-Jenkins time-series analysis and Dalrymple 1987 and Wilson and Daubek 1989 found increasing application of .