tailieunhanh - World Economic outlook - Financial Stress, Downturns and Recoveries

Data and Methodology 154 References 156 Chapter 5. Fiscal Policy as a Countercyclical tool Understanding the Fiscal Policy Debate How Has Discretionary Fiscal Policy Typically Responded? Are Fiscal Policy Reactions Different in Emerging and Advanced Economies? The Macroeconomic Effects of Discretionary Fiscal Policy A Simulation-Based Perspective on Fiscal Stimulus Conclusions and Policy Considerations Appendix | World Economic and Financial Surveys WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK October 2008 Financial Stress Downturns and Recoveries International Monetary Fund 2008 International Monetary Fund Production IMF Multimedia Services Division Cover and Design Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Figures Theodore F. Peters Jr. Typesetting Julio Prego and Choon Lee Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook International Monetary Fund World economic outlook a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. Washington DC International Monetary Fund 1980- v. 28 cm. 1981-1984 Occasional paper International Monetary Fund 0251-6365 . 1986- World economic and financial surveys 0256-6877 Semiannual. Has occasional updates 1984- 1. Economic history 1971-1990 Periodicals. 2. Economic history 1990----- Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series Occasional paper International Monetary Fund . III. Series World economic and financial surveys. 84-640155 443 09048 dc19 AACR2 MARC-S ISBN 978-1-58906-758-5 Please send orders to International Monetary Fund Publication Services 700 19th Street . Washington . 20431 . Tel. 202 623-7430 Telefax 202 623-7201 E-mail publications@ Internet CONTENTS Assumptions and Conventions ix Preface xi Foreword xii Executive Summary xv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies Global Economy under Stress 1 Financial System in Crisis 6 Deepening Housing Corrections 10 Overstretched Commodity Markets 15 Have Macroeconomic Policies Been Too Loose 21 Prospects for a Turnaround 23 Policy Challenges for the Global Economy 35 Appendix . Assessing and Communicating Risks to the Global Outlook 41 References 46 Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives United States and Canada Prognosis for the Downturn 49 Western Europe Struggling with Multiple Shocks 51 Advanced Asia Responding to External Shocks 59 Emerging Asia Balancing Risks to Growth and Price Stability 63 Latin America and the Caribbean .