tailieunhanh - Decision Theory A Brief Introduction

Decision theory in economics, psychology, philosophy, mathematics, and statistics is concerned with identifying the values, uncertainties and other issues relevant in a given decision, its rationality, and the resulting optimal decision. It is closely related to the field of game theory as to interactions of agents with at least partially conflicting interests whose decisions affect each other. | Decision Theory A Brief Introduction 1994-08-19 Minor revisions 2005-08-23 Sven Ove Hansson Department of Philosophy and the History of Technology Royal Institute of Technology KTH Stockholm 1 Contents 1. What is decision theory .5 Theoretical questions about A truly interdisciplinary Normative and descriptive Outline of the following 2. Decision Modern sequential Non-sequential The phases of practical decisions - and of decision 3. Deciding and Relations and The comparative value Using preferences in Numerical Using utilities in 4. The standard representation of individual Outcomes and states of Decision Information about states of 5. Expected What is expected utility .29 Objective and subjective Appraisal of Probability 6. What is Bayesianism .37 Appraisal of 7. Variations of expected Process utilities and regret 2 Prospect 8. Decision-making under Paradoxes of Measures of incompletely known Decision criteria for 9. Decision-making under Decision rules for classical ignorance .59 Unknown 10. The demarcation of Unfinished list of Indeterminate decision 11. Decision Conditionalized Newcomb s 12. Social decision The basic Arrow s

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