tailieunhanh - Understanding Probability: Chance Rules in Everyday Life

Mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations in which randomness and chance appear to rule. With an emphasis on why probability works and how it can be applied, Henk Tijms introduces the reader to the world of probability in an informal way. Lotteries and casino games provide a natural source of motivation, and he carefully discusses these with many worked examples to illustrate the key concepts from probability theory. Henk Tijms has been a professor in Operations Research at the Vrije University in Amsterdam since 1976. He is the author of several textbooks, including A First. | w 9780521701723 Understanding Probability Chance Rules in Everyday Life Henk Tijms Cambridge This page intentionally left blank Understanding Probability Chance events are commonplace in our daily lives. Every day we face situations where the result is uncertain and perhaps without realizing it we guess about the likelihood of one outcome or another. Fortunately mastering the concepts of probability can cast new light on situations where randomness and chance appear to rule. In this fully revised second edition of Understanding Probability the reader can learn about the world of probability in an appealing way. The author demystifies the law of large numbers betting systems random walks the bootstrap rare events the central limit theorem the Bayesian approach and more. This second edition has wider coverage more explanations and examples and exercises and a new chapter introducing Markov chains making it a great choice for a first probability course. But its easy-going style makes it just as valuable if you want to learn about the subject on your own and high school algebra is really all the mathematical background you need. Henk Tijms is Professor of Operations Research at the Vrije University in Amsterdam. The author of several textbooks including A First Course in Stochastic Models he is intensively active in the popularization of applied mathematics and probability in Dutch high schools. He has also written numerous papers on applied probability and stochastic optimization for international journals including Applied Probability and Probability in the Engineering and Informational .