tailieunhanh - Báo cáo toán học: "Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia"

Tuyển tập các báo cáo nghiên cứu khoa học ngành toán học được đăng trên tạp chí toán học quấc tế đề tài: Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia | Connor et al. Journal of Applied Volcanology 2012 1 3 http 1 1 3 o Journal of Applied Volcanology a SpringerOpen Journal METHODOLOGY Open Access Probabilistic approach to modeling lava flow inundation a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility in Armenia Laura J Connor1 Charles B Connor1 Khachatur Meliksetian2 and Ivan Savov3 Abstract Probabilistic modeling of lava flow hazard is a two-stage process. The first step is an estimation of the possible locations of future eruptive vents followed by an estimation of probable areas of inundation by lava flows issuing from these vents. We present a methodology using this two-stage approach to estimate lava flow hazard at a nuclear power plant site near Aragats a Quaternary volcano in Armenia. Keywords lava flow simulation modeling code probabilistic hazard assessment spatial density Monte Carlo method Armenia Background Volcanic hazard assessments are often conducted for specific sites such as nuclear facilities dams ports and similar critical facilities that must be located in areas of very low geologic risk Volentik et al 2009 Connor et al 2009 . These hazard assessments consider the hazard and risk posed by specific volcanic phenomena such as lava flows tephra fallout or pyroclastic density currents IAEA 2011 Hill et al 2009 . Although site hazards could be considered in terms of the cumulative effects of these various volcanic phenomena a better approach is to assess the hazard and risk of each phenomenon separately as they have varying characteristics and impacts. Here we develop a methodology for site-specific hazard assessment for lava flows. Lava flows are considered to be beyond the design basis of nuclear facilities meaning that the potential for the occurrence of lava flows above some level of acceptable likelihood would exclude the site from development of nuclear facilities because safe control or shutdown of the facility under circumstances of lava flow inundation cannot be .