tailieunhanh - Why are Irish house prices still falling?

Alice does not work alone and her literature search is of value to her colleagues as well. Alice has registered for an account with the her research group’s Semantic Bank, which hosts data pub- lished by her colleagues. 1 With one click on the “Publish” button for each item, Alice publishes information to the Semantic Bank. She can also publish the several items she is currently seeing using the “Publish All” button. She simply publishes the information in pure form without having to author any presentation for it. Alice then directs her web browser to the Semantic Bank and browses the information on. | Gerard Kennedy and Kieran McQuinn Vol. 2012 No. 5 Why are Irish house prices still falling Abstract In this note the continued fall in Irish house prices is examined. The increased rate of decline in 2011 resulted in Irish prices being almost 50 per cent down from peak levels of mid 2007. Accordingly in over forty years of house price data the fall is now one of the most significant across the OECD. We outline the current state of activity in the housing market and using a suite of models assess whether the fall in house prices is in line with that suggested by current fundamental factors within the Irish economy. Given that the analysis suggests prices may have overcorrected since 2010 we discuss possible reasons for this continued decline. 1 Introduction As it enters its fifth year the severe downturn in the Irish residential property market has already become one of the OECDs largest and most protracted. The pace of decline picked up once more throughout 2011 according to the official CSO Residential Property Price Index with 2011q4 prices down over per cent on a year-on-year basis. Consequently the decline in values since the peak of the market was over 47 per Meanwhile The temptation when discussing a recovery of 1The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Central Bank of Ireland or the ESCB. 2According to the latest CSO data national residential property prices remained static for the month of March 2012 on the back of monthly falls of per cent and per cent at the end of January and February respectively. This translates to an annual decline of per cent while prices are per cent from peak values at present. See CSO Residential Property Price Index March 2012 available online at http en media csoie releasespublications documents prices 2011 and have released data for 2012q1 showing national asking prices and per .

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