tailieunhanh - Intermarket Technical Analysis Trading Strategies for the Global_9

Tham khảo tài liệu 'intermarket technical analysis trading strategies for the global_9', tài chính - ngân hàng, đầu tư chứng khoán phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | 232 INTERMARKET ANALYSIS AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE STOCKSAND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS Stocks and commodities also qualify as leading indicators of the business cycle although their warnings are much snorter than those of bonds. Research provided by Dr. Moore in collaboration with Victor Zarnowitz and John p. Cullity in the previously-cited work on Leading Indicators for the 1990s provides US with lead and lag times for all three sectors bonds stocks and commodities relative to turns in the business cycle supporting the rotational process described in Figure . In the eight business cycles since 1948 the s p 500 stock index led turns by an average of seven months with a nine-month lead at peaks and five months at troughs. Commodity prices represented bv the Journal of Commerce Index led business cvcle turns by an average of six months with an eight-month lead at peaks and two months at troughs. Several conclusions can be drawn from these numbers. FIGURE A COMPARISON OF THE DOW JONES BOND AVERAGE THE DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE AND GOLD DURING 1987. THE THREE MARKETS PEAKED DURING 1987 IN THE CORRECT ROTATION-BONDS FIRST DURING THE SPRING STOCKS SECOND DURING THE SUMMER AND GOLD LAST IN DECEMBER . GOLD CAN RALLY FOR A TIME ALONG WITH BONDS AND STOCKS BUT PROVIDES AN EARLY WARNING OF RENEWED INFLATION PRESSURES. STOCKS AND COMMODITIES AS LEADING INDICATORS 233 One is that technical analysis of bonds stocks and commodities can play a role in economic analysis. Another is that the rotational nature of the three markets as pictured in Figure is confirmed. Bonds turn first 17 months in advance stocks second seven months in advance and commodities third six months in advance . That rotational sequence ofbonds stocks and commodities turning in order is maintained at both peaks and troughs. In all three markets the lead at peaks is much longer than at troughs. The lead time given at peaks by bonds can be extremely long 27 months on average while .