tailieunhanh - Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading_7

Tham khảo tài liệu 'diary of a professional commodity trader: lessons from 21 weeks of real trading_7', tài chính - ngân hàng, tài chính doanh nghiệp phục vụ nhu cầu học tập, nghiên cứu và làm việc hiệu quả | sanity as a trader. The advance on January 5 completed a two-month symmetrical triangle. I chose to use the last full day within the pattern December 30 to determine the Last Day Rule. I was stopped out on January 14 for a 67 tick loss. FIGURE Trades 1-3 Early Frustration in Sugar Trading. Buying New Highs Bound and determined to be aboard a bull market I kept buying new highs. Normally this is not my style. I prefer to wait for recognizable patterns. I went long on January 26 trade 2 and pyramided the trade when the market made yet another new high on February 26 trade 3 . The nosedive on March 2 took me out of both trades costing a total of 94 ticks. The stop on trade 2 had been moved from the Last Day Rule of January 23 to a Retest Rule below the low of February 19. Waiting for a Substantial Pattern After being burned by buying new highs I decided to wait for a recognizable pattern. And I got one in spades in late April. For decades I have been part of an e-mail network of a dozen or so fellow chart traders. We share ideas and chart analyses. Following is the e-mail I sent the group on April 30 April 30 2009 A sweet trading opportunity The longer-term charts indicate that sugar could be the trade for 2009. Several technical observations are worthy of note. The weekly chart displays a textbook perfect symmetrical triangle dating back to March 2008. This 14-month triangle would be completed by a move above in the nearby July contract. This weekly chart must be viewed in the historical context of a possible base dating back to 1981. A decisive close above the 2006 high at would establish a point and figure objective in the 60s. The July contract today penetrated the upper ice line of a nine-week rectangle. It is not uncommon for a massive move to begin with the completion of a relatively small chart pattern such as this. Daily charts need to be combined with weekly charts monthly charts and even quarterly charts to develop a mosaic on market .