tailieunhanh - Bank credit, asset prices and financial stability: Evidence from French banks

One of the most influential studies of the pace of evolutionary change was pub- lished in 1971 by two young paleontologists at the American Museum of Natural History named Niles Eldredge and Stephen Jay Gould. They pointed out that the fossils of a typical species showed few signs of change during its lifetime. New species branching off from old ones had small but distinctive differences. Eldredge carefully documented this stasis in trilobites, an extinct lineage of armored arthropods. He counted the rows of columns in the eyes of each sub- species. He found that they did not change over six million years. Eldredge and Gould proposed that. | Bank credit asset prices and financial stability Evidence from French banks Cyril Pouvelle INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND 2012 International Monetary Fund WP 12 103 IMF Working Paper European Department Bank credit asset prices and financial stability Evidence from French banks 1 Prepared by Cyril Pouvelle Authorized for distribution by Erik de Vrijer April 2012 This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author s and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author s and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. Abstract This paper analyses the effect of asset prices on credit growth in France and tries to disentangle credit demand and supply factors both for the whole 1993-2010 period and during periods of financial instability. Using bank-level panel data at a quarterly frequency stock price growth is shown to have a significant effect on lending growth over the whole period but without credit supply factors being singled out. By contrast housing price growth has a significant effect during periods of financial instability only even after controlling for credit demand effects. These results show that credit demand factors do play a large role but also provide evidence of tighter credit constraints on households in financial instability periods. JEL Classification Numbers E51 G1 G12 G21 Keywords Credit growth asset prices financial stability Author s E-Mail Address cpouvelle@ 1 The author wishes to thank Heiko Hesse Helene Poirson Lev Ratnovski Amadou Sy Jerome Vandenbussche Erik de Vrijer and seminar participants at the IMF for very helpful comments. All remaining errors are the author s sole responsibility. 2 Contents Abstract. 1 I. Introduction. 3 II. Asset prices and bank balance sheets related literature. 5 III. The dataset. 8 A. Description of the data. 8 B. Descriptive .

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