tailieunhanh - Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-Transitional Societies

Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) was given an international consensus def- inition at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in 1994. At its core is the promotion of healthy, voluntary and safe sexual and reproductive choices for individuals and couples, including decisions on family size and timing of marriage, that are fundamental to human well-being. Sexual- ity and reproduction are vital aspects of personal identity and key to creating fulfilling personal and social relationships within diverse cultural contexts. SRH does not only involve the reproductive years but emphasizes the need for a life-cycle approach to health. It touches on sensitive, yet. | Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-Transitional Societies John Bongaarts 1998 No. 114 Fertility and Reproductive Preferences in Post-Transitional Societies John Bongaarts John Bongaarts is Vice President Policy Research Division Population Council. Paper prepared for the Conference on Global Fertility Transition Bellagio Italy May 1998. Abstract Conventional theories have little to say about the level at which fertility will stabilize at the end of the demographic transition although it is often assumed that replacement fertility of about births per woman will prevail in the long run. However fertility has dropped below the replacement level in virtually every population that has moved through the transition. If future fertility remains at these low levels populations will decline in size and will age rapidly. This paper examines the causes of discrepancies between reproductive preferences and observed fertility. Examples of such deviations are found in many contemporary developed countries where desired family size is typically two children while fertility is well below replacement. Six factors are identified as the causes of these discrepancies. Of these factors the fertility-depressing impact of the rising age at childbearing is one of the most important. This factor reduces fertility only as long as the age at childbearing keeps rising. Once the mean age stops rising as it eventually must fertility will rise closer to the desired level of two children because the depressing effect is then removed. The current low levels of fertility in many developed countries may therefore not be permanent. This material may not be reproduced in any form without written permission from the .