tailieunhanh - Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing ¤

The analysis by Tirole (2008) of maturity transformation by financial intermediaries such as pension funds and insurance companies which have (uncertain) long-term liabilities (and assets of a shorter maturity) carries this Keynesian tradition further. In the presence of macroeconomic shocks that affect everybody simultaneously, he argues, private sector assets are not useful. Instead what is needed is an external risk-free store of value such as government bonds. A prolonged period of low rates of interest on government bonds can make some pension products offered by such firms unviable | Optimal Interest-Rate Smoothing Michael Woodford Department of Economics Princeton University Princeton NJ 08544 UsA June 2002 Abstract This paper considers the desirability of the observed tendency of central banks to adjust interest rates only gradually in response to changes in economic conditions. It shows in the context of a simple model of optimizing private-sector behavior that assignment of an interest-rate smoothing objective to the central bank may be desirable even when reduction of the magnitude of interest-rate changes is not a social objective in itself. This is because a response of policy to irrelevant lagged variables may be desirable owing to the way it steers private-sector expectations of future policy. Keywords interest-rate smoothing commitment discretion optimal delegation. JEL no. E52 This paper is excerpted from a longer study circulated under the title Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia. I would like to thank Alan Blinder Mark Gertler Marvin Goodfriend Bob Hall Pat Kehoe Nobuhiro Kiyotaki Julio Rotemberg Tom Sargent Lars Svensson John Vickers Carl Walsh the editor and two anonymous referees for helpful comments and Marc Giannoni for excellent research assistance. I also thank the National Science Foundation the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation and the Center for Economic Policy Studies Princeton University for research support. 1 Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia Many students of central bank behavior have noted that the level of nominal interest rates in the recent past appears to be an important determinant of where the central bank will set its interest-rate instrument in the present. Changes in observed conditions such as in the rate of inflation or in the level of economic activity result in changes in the level of the central bank s operating target for the short-term interest rate that it controls but these changes typically occur through a series of small adjustments in the same direction drawn out over a period of months rather than .

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